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In his opening remarks at the Regional Outlook Forum 2026, the senior minister highlighted the shifts shaping the global and regional outlook, reinforcing the need for ASEAN unity and deeper cooperation to navigate these external challenges.
Last week, Singapore's Senior Minister Lee Hsien Loong took the stage at the Regional Outlook Forum 2026 to deliver his opening remarks. During his speech, he highlighted the key challenges shaping the regional outlook — from shifts in global trade and security to evolving US-China dynamics — and stressed that ASEAN must work together as "one unit, rather than as 11 different countries" to navigate external pressures and strengthen regional resilience.
Here is a summary of his speech, as follows:
Trade
SM Lee described how the Trump administration's tariffs upended global trading system. While the immediate impact has been less severe than initially feared, the long-term implications, he pointed out, remain drastic.
With the US stepping away from a multilateral, MFN-based framework in favour of bilateral, tariff-driven arrangements, global trade risks becoming increasingly fragmented. As SM Lee shared, over time, as countries move to defend their own interests, the world economy is likely to face less stability, less growth, less prosperity, less economic integration and technological progress.
Security
On the security front, SM Lee highlighted various shifts in the global landscape. In Europe, countries are reassessing their defence responsibilities to determine their own security policy and be more independent from the US.
This marks a fundamental change, particularly for Ukraine, which is on the frontline and at war, and will now have to think, 'What is a realistic path forward for our country?'.
In the Asia Pacific, while there has been no NATO-style turning point, US-China relations remain a key factor. Despite underlying tensions, both sides have shown reluctance to incur the cost of a full-scale trade war, resulting in accomodations being made.
"For the rest of the countries in the Asia Pacific, the US is still a very important partner — security partner, economic partner, investment source, and destination for further studies," SM Lee stated.
Much will depend on how China chooses to engage its regional neighbours and whether its stated commitment to multilateralism and a rules-based system is reflected in concrete policies going forward.
Rules-based international order
For the rest of the world, SM Lee noted that one major change is that the US has been more willing to act unilaterally when it perceives its national interests are at stake — including military interventions in places like the Middle East, Nigeria, Venezuela, and more.
In the short term, some of these actions have produced notable outcomes, such as a temporary ceasefire in Gaza, however, he cautioned that the longer-term consequences of such unilateral actions — even on the immediate targets — raise serious concerns for the international system.
The current global order is built on principles of the United Nations, the UN Charter, international law, and peaceful coexistence, and he questioned whether this environment of unilateral action truly advances those foundational norms.
How ASEAN should respond
On how ASEAN should respond, Senior Minister Lee emphasised the need to work together as one. He stressed that closer cooperation and unity are essential for ASEAN to manage external challenges more effectively, rather than as 11 individual countries.
ASEAN has already made progress in areas such as economic integration, infrastructure development, and the digital economy. However, he also acknowledged that ASEAN continues to face complex internal challenges — including unresolved conflicts in Myanmar and between Thailand and Cambodia — which the region must address.
2026 outlook
Looking ahead, SM Lee shared that as far as growth is concerned, "it could be plus a bit, minus a bit compared to last year," with last year proving better than expected.
"What has happened is that we have undergone a sea change. We are now in a different world, and we are going to see the consequences of the sea change in the economy, as well as in the security area in 2026, and for many years to come."
"We hope we do not have any tectonic shocks again. I cannot say for sure. Nobody can predict these things, but we hope that 2025 will have been more exciting than 2026."
Lead image / Prime Minister's Office
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