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- Singapore could face hotter, drier weather from June to October 2026 as El Niño conditions are expected to develop in the coming months.
- MSS said the climate phenomenon may bring lower rainfall, higher temperatures, and a greater risk of transboundary haze across the region.
- Authorities are urging the public to monitor haze and heat stress updates closely as the dry season could become more intense and prolonged this year.
The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) has forecast that El Niño conditions are likely to develop between June and July 2026, bringing warmer and drier weather to Singapore and the surrounding region in the coming months.
In an update released on 29 May 2026, MSS said there is more than an 80% chance of an El Niño event occurring this year. The agency added that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also expected to develop in the second half of 2026.
Together, both climate phenomena are expected to result in warmer and drier conditions across Singapore from June to October 2026, increasing the risk of transboundary haze affecting Singapore and the region.
El Niño likely to reduce rainfall and raise temperatures
According to MSS, key climate indicators supporting the El Niño forecast include warmer sub-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific.
The agency said El Niño events typically have the strongest impact on Singapore’s rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season from June to September, increasing the likelihood of dry weather conditions.
During the last strong El Niño event in 2015/2016, Singapore’s total rainfall between June and September 2015 was around 35% below the long-term average.
El Niño events are also associated with warmer temperatures in Singapore, particularly during the period when the event begins to weaken, usually between March and May the following year.
MSS noted that during the weakening phase of the previous strong El Niño event in 2016, Singapore recorded average temperatures of 29.2 degrees celsius between March and May. This was 1.0 degrees celsius above the long-term average for that period, making it Singapore’s second warmest March to May period on record.
The year 2016 remains tied with 2019 and 2024 as one of Singapore’s hottest years on record.
At this stage, MSS said there is still considerable uncertainty regarding the strength of the upcoming El Niño event. Current forecasts suggest it is likely to begin as a moderate event, with the possibility of strengthening later during the Southwest Monsoon season between August and September.
Positive IOD may worsen dry conditions
Apart from El Niño, MSS said most global climate models are also predicting the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) between July and August 2026.
The IOD is another climate phenomenon that influences weather conditions around the tropical Indian Ocean. A positive IOD typically leads to cooler sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean, resulting in reduced cloud formation and drier conditions across Singapore and nearby regions.
MSS highlighted that Singapore’s driest year on record, 1997, occurred when both El Niño and positive IOD events took place at the same time.
Higher risk of transboundary haze during dry season
The agency also warned that the warmer and drier conditions expected during the Southwest Monsoon period could increase the likelihood of peatland and vegetation fires in the surrounding region, particularly in fire-prone areas.
If fires occur close to Singapore and prevailing south-easterly to south-westerly winds carry smoke towards the country, transboundary haze could affect local air quality.
MSS added that with both El Niño and a potential positive IOD expected this year, the dry season could become more intense and prolonged compared to recent years, potentially extending into October.
The National Environment Agency (NEA) said the 28 agencies under the Haze Task Force (HTF) are prepared to activate their respective response plans should haze conditions worsen.
Employers, public advised to monitor haze and heat stress updates
In a Telegram message shared on Monday, the Ministry of Manpower (MOM) reminded employers to adhere to its haze guidelines and relevant tripartite advisories, and to take proactive steps to safeguard employees from the effects of haze, including:
- Conducting mask fit testing for employees who are required to work outdoors.
- Improving the efficiency of air filter devices to maintain good indoor air quality.
- Implementing a haze communication system as part of companies' haze-related Business Continuity Plans.
Similarly, MSS has encouraged members of the public to monitor the one-hour PM2.5 concentration levels when planning outdoor or strenuous activities over the next few hours, as haze conditions can fluctuate throughout the day depending on weather patterns.
For next-day activity planning, NEA advised the public to refer to the 24-hour PSI forecast and accompanying health advisories. Households are also encouraged to ensure that air purifiers are functioning properly ahead of any potential haze episodes.
As warmer temperatures are typically associated with El Niño conditions, MSS also advised the public to monitor heat stress conditions through its heat stress webpage and the myENV app.
Lead image / National Environment Agency (NEA) Facebook
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