Hong Kong's manpower shortage projected to narrow to 130,000 by 2028 as AI reshapes workforce

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Demand remains acute across key sectors despite an improving manpower outlook, while AI is expected to drive significant restructuring of clerical roles.

Hong Kong's overall manpower shortage is expected to ease over the next three years, although shortages will persist across most key industries and AI-driven restructuring is set to reshape clerical occupations, according to the latest Mid-term Update of Manpower Projection released by the Labour and Welfare Bureau.

The report projected the city's overall manpower shortage to narrow from the previous estimate of approximately 180,000 to around 130,000 by 2028.

The improvement is attributed to the various talent admission and labour importation measures introduced by the Government over the past three years, which have helped supplement part of the labour force. Without these initiatives, the overall manpower shortage could widen significantly to about 300,000 by 2028, driven by structural factors such as population ageing.

Despite the improving outlook, manpower shortages are expected to persist across most key industries, particularly in the innovation and technology, aviation, construction, city operation, and healthcare services sectors.

In terms of occupations, shortages are projected to remain concentrated among skilled technical workers and services and sales workers, which together account for around 60% of the overall projected shortfall. The report noted that these roles are generally harder for AI to replace because they require interpersonal interaction and complex craftsmanship. However, manpower shortages are expected to persist due to workforce ageing and ongoing difficulties in attracting youth entrants.

AI expected to accelerate workforce transformation

The report also examined the growing impact of AI on Hong Kong's labour market, identifying fresh graduates and middle-aged clerical support workers as among the groups most affected.

According to the findings, AI adoption in applicable roles could boost individual productivity by 20% to 30%. The report noted that companies are currently managing the transition through natural attrition, and the risk of large-scale layoffs in the short term remains relatively low. Nevertheless, approximately 20% to 30% of positions, primarily clerical roles, are expected to undergo restructuring.

The impact of AI is expected to be most pronounced among two groups.

First, the displacement of entry-level positions has reduced the number of job vacancies suitable for fresh graduates sharply by approximately 60% compared to 2022.

Second, as companies expand AI adoption for routine administrative tasks, clerical support workers are projected to record a manpower surplus of approximately 25,000 to 30,000 by 2028. Approximately 70,000 middle-aged clerical support workers aged between 45 to 54 without post-secondary education are expected to face transition pressure.

At the same time, demand for emerging AI experts continues to grow, particularly for composite talent who possess both AI application skills and sector-specific knowledge.

Looking ahead, the report said proficiency in human-machine collaboration will become a basic competency, while soft skills that AI cannot replace, such as interpersonal communication, critical thinking, and problem-solving, will remain the core of competitiveness.

Hong Kong’s Secretary for Labour and Welfare Chris Sun said the Government will continue collaborating with all parties to formulate targeted measures. These include strengthening retraining mechanisms, providing flexible skill-conversion programmes for elderly and middle-aged employees, enhancing the employment support for young graduates, and exploring incentives for employers and employees to engage in on-the-job retraining.

Sun added that the aim is to help workers at all levels equip themselves to step into the new era of AI through a multipronged approach.

The lead image is generated by AI